The authors examine the possibility that the extraordinary costs and destructiveness of the present Israeli-Palestinian conflict could demonstrate to all the urgent need for a path to a durable peace. The authors consider the history of this asymmetrical conflict; identify lessons from attempts to resolve other thorny conflicts; and set out a road map with short-, medium-, and long-term security, governance, economic, physical and social, and international pathways to such a peace.
Three characteristics have made this conflict especially difficult to resolve: (1) There are few credible Israeli or Palestinian partners to exert leadership for peace; (2) the territorial claims of both sides are incompatible; and (3) the conflict has attracted much international involvement, not always in support of compromise and peace.
The case studies highlight the importance of individual leaders’ personal and political commitment to peace and the role of outside individuals. Leaders who can declare that it is time to explore peace can make a dramatic difference. There are also possible advantages of international pressure, even if the two sides are still far apart.
The road map to a durable peace is framed around the destination of a “second state” for the Palestinians. The prerequisites require credible leadership from all sides dedicated to peace. Success would be transformative for the region, its peoples, and the wider world. The benefits include restored security for Israelis and Palestinians, a new construct for Palestinian governance over the longer term, and economic and social revival for Gazans and Palestinians in the West Bank.
Key Findings
The United States should see its role as a process orchestrator rather than a mediator; its short-term assistance should be focused on the international security force, governing multinational coalition authority, and near-term stabilization for Gaza’s civilians. The United Kingdom and the European Union, in association with Arab states, must provide substantial financial support for humanitarian assistance and longer-term development. China should be encouraged to play a constructive, significant role in negotiating and supporting peace. Iran and Russia should be deterred from playing spoiler roles.
The pathway to a durable peace must be based on effective security. The starting point must be the elimination of Hamas as a governing entity and a security threat. Under a multinational coalition authority, an interim security force based on Western and Arab forces, with support from a vetted and trained Palestinian security force, can bring safety and security to traumatized Gazans. Over time, an effective, legitimate Palestinian security force can be built.
Governance should begin at local levels. An interim technocratic government would be able to take responsibility over time, initially under the authority of the multinational coalition authority. Later, a national reconciliation process can lay the groundwork for the drafting of an interim constitution and national elections. A new, legitimate Palestinian entity can confidently conduct final status negotiations with Israel.
Economic strategies will depend on opening commercial corridors between Gaza and the West Bank; capitalizing a strong Palestinian banking system; rebuilding power, water, and transport infrastructure; and re-creating cross-border opportunities for Palestinian laborers.
Rebuilding Gaza’s physical and social infrastructure will be crucial. Many Gazans will likely live in camps for years, and so care should be placed into the design of these medium-term new communities.
Source: rand