This blog post is part of a special series based on the October 2024 Commodity Markets Outlook, a flagship report published by the World Bank. This series features concise summaries of commodity-specific sections extracted from the report. Explore the full report here.
Following a 6 percent increase in 2024Q3 (q/q), the World Bank’s precious metals price index extended its gains to reach an all-time high in October, before easing in November. The recent price increase was largely driven by gold, which reached a record high in October. Silver prices rose to a 12-year high in October, while platinum prices remained elevated despite edging down in 2024Q3. Precious metal prices, which increased by about 20 percent in 2024 (y/y), are projected to remain broadly stable in 2025 and decline slightly in 2026. Gold prices are expected to stay high, supported by heightened geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, steady demand growth amid tight supplies is expected to support price increases for platinum and silver. However, a further escalation of geopolitical tensions could push gold prices beyond current forecasts, while weaker-than-expected industrial activity in major economies could reduce demand for silver and platinum, potentially driving prices below projections.
Gold prices surged to an all-time high in late October. Heightened geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases, and the onset of U.S. monetary easing supported the recent increase in gold prices. As a safe-haven asset, gold has benefited from geopolitical uncertainties throughout the year. Strong central bank gold buying in 2024—led by India, Türkiye, and Poland—further boosted gold demand. This increase aligns with a broader trend over the past five years, during which net gold purchases by institutions—primarily central banks—have risen significantly. The increase partly reflects reserve management strategies by several EMDE central banks and concerns over geopolitical risks. Additionally, a resurgence in demand for gold from exchange-traded funds also helped propel prices higher in 2024Q3. Gold prices are expected to remain elevated—about 80 percent above their 2015-19 average throughout the forecast period (2025-26)—supported by strong safe-haven demand.
Silver prices extended their gains in 2024Q3 to reach a 12-year high in October. Silver prices have been supported by the onset of U.S. monetary easing and growing demand from renewable energy technologies such as solar panels. Demand for silver is expected to grow steadily in the coming years, supported by its dual roles in industrial applications—which accounts for more than half of silver demand—and financial markets. Meanwhile, global silver supply, including from recycling, is anticipated to grow modestly in the next few years. After increasing by about 20 percent this year, silver prices are projected to increase by 7 percent in 2025 and an additional 3 percent in 2026, as supply growth is likely to lag behind strong demand tailwinds.
Platinum prices edged down in 2024Q3, following an 8 percent increase in the previous quarter. The recent decline in platinum prices has been partly attributed to subdued activity in the automotive sector, one of its major consumers. Additionally, the narrowing price gap between platinum and palladium has limited the substitution of platinum for palladium, which had previously supported prices. Looking ahead, demand for platinum from the automotive sector—which accounts for two-fifths of its usage—is expected to remain weak as internal combustion engine vehicles gradually lose market share to battery electric vehicles. Jewelry production is also anticipated to stay subdued, while industrial demand, particularly from the fiberglass sector, is projected to decline in 2025. Nevertheless, investment demand growth may provide some support to prices. Despite this overall subdued demand outlook, platinum prices are expected to rise by 5 percent in 2025 and 2026, supported by tighter mine supply among major producers.
Source: blogs.worldbank.org