The Bernanke Review was triggered by the Bank of England mis-forecasting UK inflation as it rose rapidly from 2021, peaking at 11% in 2022. Unpredictable shocks partly explain the failures, but slow reactions also mattered. This column argues that monitoring forecasts in real time would have revealed large same-sign one-step-ahead errors, signalling a shift. Rapidly […]
Did you know that in Sub-Saharan Africa, students spend an average of six years in school but leave with only three years’ worth of learning? The learning gap is stark, but artificial intelligence (AI) is rising to the challenge. In Kenya, innovators have created Somanasi (“Learn with me”), an AI-powered chatbot designed to help bridge this divide. By […]
Geoeconomic fragmentation may have major implications for the global economy. This column uses using a multi-country New Keynesian model to analyse the effects of various fragmentation sources, including tariffs on goods and commodities, as well as taxes on capital flows. Results indicate that the economic impact of fragmentation differs by region. Countries belonging to a […]