GECMagz

Macroeconomic impacts of defense spending

EU member states are facing an important multi-year period of increased defence spending. 1   To boost defence capability, NATO allies have…

5 months ago

Harnessing the wisdom of the crowds for OECD recession predictions

Macroeconomic forecasters have long struggled to accurately pinpoint the timing of future recessions. In response, an alternative approach using probabilistic…

5 months ago

Rerouted, not reduced: How withholding taxes shape global services trade

Global services trade – as the future of global trade – is expanding rapidly (Baldwin et al. 2024, Cernat 2024,…

5 months ago

Bank recapitalization versus firm support: A fiscal criterion for crisis policy

Governments often provide capital and other direct funding to banks and nonfinancial firms during economic crises. Government recapitalisation of banks…

5 months ago

Macro-financial disconnect in the euro area: Assessing tail risks to euro area growth and equities

The European Commission's Autumn 2025 forecast points to a subdued but positive growth outlook for all euro area member states…

5 months ago

Political power and profitable trades in the US Congress

The debate over whether US members of Congress should be allowed to trade individual stocks has moved from a niche…

5 months ago

Emerging market resilience to risk-off shocks: Good luck, but mostly good policies

Emerging markets have long been highly exposed to swings in global risk sentiment. During periods of heightened risk aversion –…

5 months ago

How Brazil’s indexed minimum wage allows inflation to grease the wheels of the labour market

Many economies index their minimum wage to inflation to preserve its real value during inflationary periods. This column shows, however,…

5 months ago

The role of wages in retaining effective teachers in the classroom

Concerns about declining student achievements have become central in education debates, with teacher quality drawing attention as a key driver.…

5 months ago

A European safe asset will require bolder steps

The EU aims to finance common priorities in defence, energy transition, and digital infrastructure with supranational EU bonds. This column…

5 months ago