GECMagz

Understanding inflation with textual analysis: How news about commodities improves predictions

Commodity prices have historically been considered leading indicators of inflation, but the relationship has weakened since the mid-1980s, making them…

5 months ago

Infrastructure diplomacy in the shadow of the Belt and Road: Lessons from Japan’s experience

Infrastructure diplomacy has become a central arena for strategic competition. This column examines how China’s Belt and Road Initiative has…

5 months ago

How the US South caught up: A century of manufacturing productivity convergence

Economic historians have long debated whether lagging regions can catch up in productivity with industrial leaders. This column shows that,…

5 months ago

Classroom heat widens the achievement gap

Extreme heat events are becoming more frequent and intense with climate change. Children are particularly vulnerable to such environmental stressors.…

5 months ago

Why households save and work: The role of risks, bequest motives, and family dynamics

Household saving and labour supply are shaped by many risks – wages, marriage, health, longevity – as well as bequest…

5 months ago

The return of inflation: Why ‘look through’ can backfire under incomplete information

Central banks facing post-pandemic inflation often considered ‘looking through’ supply shocks. Using a New Keynesian framework in which agents gradually…

6 months ago

How real-time data misled policymakers during the post-COVID recovery

Preliminary data releases can diverge significantly from subsequently revised figures, complicating economic policy decisions made in real time. The Great…

6 months ago

Ripples presaging a financial tsunami

Loss of confidence in the US dollar’s reserve currency status could trigger a collapse of the US Treasury market and…

6 months ago

Incomplete contracts and renegotiation in public procurement

Public procurement contracts worldwide often face high risks of cost overruns and project delays, raising questions about the scope for…

6 months ago

The long life spans of royals reveal the secret of ‘healthy stress’

Social status not only influences people’s beliefs and political views (Kreiner et al. 2020) but can also make a difference…

6 months ago