GECMagz

The economic impact of European capital market integration

Economic growth in Europe continues to trail behind that of the US, largely due to smaller productivity gains. A key…

8 months ago

Understanding inflation with textual analysis: How news about commodities improves predictions

Commodity prices have historically been considered leading indicators of inflation, but the relationship has weakened since the mid-1980s, making them…

8 months ago

Infrastructure diplomacy in the shadow of the Belt and Road: Lessons from Japan’s experience

Infrastructure diplomacy has become a central arena for strategic competition. This column examines how China’s Belt and Road Initiative has…

8 months ago

How the US South caught up: A century of manufacturing productivity convergence

Economic historians have long debated whether lagging regions can catch up in productivity with industrial leaders. This column shows that,…

8 months ago

Classroom heat widens the achievement gap

Extreme heat events are becoming more frequent and intense with climate change. Children are particularly vulnerable to such environmental stressors.…

8 months ago

Why households save and work: The role of risks, bequest motives, and family dynamics

Household saving and labour supply are shaped by many risks – wages, marriage, health, longevity – as well as bequest…

8 months ago

The return of inflation: Why ‘look through’ can backfire under incomplete information

Central banks facing post-pandemic inflation often considered ‘looking through’ supply shocks. Using a New Keynesian framework in which agents gradually…

8 months ago

How real-time data misled policymakers during the post-COVID recovery

Preliminary data releases can diverge significantly from subsequently revised figures, complicating economic policy decisions made in real time. The Great…

8 months ago

Ripples presaging a financial tsunami

Loss of confidence in the US dollar’s reserve currency status could trigger a collapse of the US Treasury market and…

8 months ago

Incomplete contracts and renegotiation in public procurement

Public procurement contracts worldwide often face high risks of cost overruns and project delays, raising questions about the scope for…

8 months ago