Persistent deviations from the covered interest parity no-arbitrage condition are viewed as evidence of the new and central role of balance sheet constraints and financial
Geopolitical tensions are often seen as a source of inflation. But this is only part of the story. This column shows that geopolitical shocks transmitted
Nonbank financial institutions are often seen as procyclical lenders, cutting credit more sharply than banks during stress, while bond markets can substitute for bank lending
Estimates of AI’s employment effect disagree in size and even in sign. This column argues the disagreement is built into the measurement: AI substitutes for
China’s trade surplus is widening, its manufactured exports are surging, and the political backlash is intensifying. This column argues that the widening trade surplus reflects
Geoeconomic risk has become a first-order concern for investors. This column shows that domestic US stocks expose investors to substantial geoeconomic risk through firms’ global
Europe’s output losses proved limited following the 2022 cutoff of Russian gas flows, yet inflation rose sharply. This column uses weather variation and gas-market events