Beneath the ban of abortion: Evidence from the USSR

Recent years have brought a renewed, coordinated push to restrict abortion, from the US to Hungary and Poland. Earlier this month, that backlash met a forceful counter-mobilisation in Brussels: on 17 December 2025, Members of the European Parliament endorsed the citizens’ initiative “My Voice, My Choice”, which collected 1.12 million signatures and calls for funding abortion care for women who lack access and for national laws to align with international human rights standards. ¹ The initiative is framed, rightly, as a question of women’s health and autonomy. But the stakes extend further than the clinic door. Our research asks what abortion access shapes beyond the immediate decision: how it affects the health of the children who are born, where women turn when formal care is blocked, and whether the resulting private workarounds leave lasting marks on families, communities, and society.

History provides stark answers. In the 1920s, the Soviet Union was among the first countries in the world to legalise abortion. But in 1936, this progressive stance shifted abruptly: a sweeping national ban on abortion was introduced under Stalin, justified as a pronatalist push to grow the population. This policy reversal provides a unique natural experiment to study the long-run consequences of restricting reproductive rights.

In a new study, we examine the effects of this 1936 ban using newly digitised archival data (Mehmood et al. 2025). We find that the policy not only increased births but also led to higher infant mortality, greater maternal death from unsafe abortions, and, in the long run, worse outcomes for the children born – including increased conflict with the law in adulthood.

From liberal to restrictive: A natural policy shock

Before the 1936 ban, abortion was widely accessible across Soviet republics. This legal access gave women reproductive autonomy at a time when many countries still outlawed the practice. The sudden policy change offers a rare opportunity to study the causal effects of a nationwide abortion ban in a high-capacity state with centralised enforcement.

We exploit regional differences in pre-ban abortion intensity – captured by archival data on abortion rates per woman – and use a difference-in-differences strategy and an event study approach to compare outcomes before and after the policy. This approach allows us to isolate the effects of the ban on both mothers and children.

More births, but also more infant deaths

Following the ban, birth rates rose sharply, especially among women of reproductive age. For every ten additional pre-ban abortions per 1,000 women, regions experienced about five extra births after the ban. Our event study analysis (Figure 1, Panel A) confirms this causal link, showing that birth rates followed parallel trends before the ban and jumped immediately after its implementation.

However, this rise came with a tragic, unintended consequence: a corresponding increase in infant mortality. The same regions suffered about one additional infant death per 1,000 women, implying that nearly one out of every five extra births did not survive infancy. Many children were born prematurely or with complications that made survival difficult (Figure 1, Panel B).

Archival mortality records show that infant deaths from conditions like congenital weakness and premature birth rose notably, whereas mortality from infectious diseases unrelated to reproductive health – such as influenza or typhus – remained stable. The evidence suggests that many of these births were unintended and inadequately supported.

Figure 1 Impact of abortions ban on births and infant deaths over time

Unsafe abortions and maternal death

Thanks to rare Soviet health records on causes of death, we are able to empirically examine one of the key mechanisms: maternal mortality. We find a sharp increase in female deaths from causes associated with unsafe abortions. Importantly, these increases are not mirrored in deaths from unrelated diseases such as tuberculosis or typhus, which strengthens the interpretation that the rise in maternal mortality is linked to the ban. In the absence of legal options, women shifted to unsafe procedures, with substantial and often fatal health consequences.

Abortion crimes

The ban did not eliminate abortion; it pushed it underground. Using declassified criminal records from the Soviet Prosecutor General’s Office, we document a significant rise in illegal abortions following the ban. In regions with ten more pre-ban abortions per 1,000 women, we estimate an additional 2.6 illegal abortions per one million women in the post-ban period. This figure almost certainly understates the true scale, as most clandestine procedures never entered official records. The increase in illegal abortions provides direct evidence that when legal pathways are closed, women turn to riskier alternatives, with devastating health consequences.

Long-run societal consequences

The repercussions of the ban extended well beyond the immediate health crisis and shaped the socioeconomic trajectory of regions for years to come. Our analysis reveals a telling pattern: before the ban, abortion was used more intensively as a tool for family planning in wealthier, more developed regions. There is a strong positive correlation between a region’s income per capita in 1935 and its pre-ban abortion rate (Figure 2). This suggests that in these more advanced areas, access to abortion was facilitating a classic ‘positive check’ on population growth as theorised by Malthus, accelerating a demographic transition toward smaller, potentially better-invested-in families – a key driver of development.

Figure 2 Abortion rates and baseline income per capita

The 1936 ban abruptly interrupted this transition. Figure 3 plots the evolution of births and infant deaths for regions grouped into three terciles based on their pre-ban abortion intensity. Panel A shows that the demographic transition in the richest, high-abortion regions was halted, forcing their fertility trends to converge with those of poorer, less developed regions. This policy effectively pushed developing regions backward. These findings echo a long-standing lesson from unified growth theory: that restrictions on fertility control can reverse the development advantages gained through the demographic transition (Galor 2011).

The consequences for child welfare were immediate and severe. The same convergence pattern appears in infant mortality (Figure 3, Panel B), where the ban erased the health advantages of richer regions, pulling their infant survival rates down toward the higher-mortality levels of poorer areas.

Figure 3 Births and infant deaths in the three terciles of abortion per woman

This economic and demographic disruption was mirrored in social behaviour. Cohorts born after the ban were more likely to engage in minor property crimes during adolescence. Specifically, regions with higher exposure to the ban saw approximately 27 additional cases of vandalism per million population among these cohorts. This increase in low-level delinquency – not seen for more serious violent crimes – suggests the ban contributed to family instability or reduced parental resources. Critically, these effects on crime were unique to those born after the ban, reinforcing that these societal ripples were a direct consequence of the policy itself (Figure 4).

Figure 4 Impact of abortions ban on vandalism over time

A cautionary tale for modern policymakers

The Soviet experience offers a stark historical lesson. Curtailing reproductive autonomy did not eliminate abortion. However, women who still needed to abort were pushed into the shadows, substituting safe medical care with dangerous, illegal alternatives that raised maternal and infant mortality. The costs extended far beyond immediate health. The ban halted the demographic transition in the most developed regions, reversing a key driver of economic advancement, with consequences reaching the next generation in the form of increased adolescent delinquency.

The Soviet case is more than a historical footnote about one regime’s policy reversal. It is a definitive lesson on the foundational role of reproductive autonomy. Access to safe, legal abortion is not merely a healthcare issue; it is a critical pillar of public health, human capital formation, and long-term social stability. When this right is withdrawn, the consequences cascade from the clinic through the family and across generations, leaving a profound and damaging legacy.

Source: cepr.org