After the pandemic, central banks faced the daunting challenge of stabilising prices as supply chain disruptions led to rising costs (Ostry et al. 2022) and geopolitical tensions (Ben Cheikh et al. 2023) and aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve led to significant fluctuations in exchange rates. All the while, policymakers at major central banks […]
It is generally believed that standard macroeconomic models of foreign exchange rates do not fit the data well. However, this column argues that a model that includes real interest rates, expected inflation, the US trade balance, and measures of global risk and liquidity demand fits the data for the US dollar against other G10 currencies […]