As the global population nears 10 billion by mid-century, agricultural productivity will play a critical role in feeding the world. Over the past 60 years, productivity improvements have driven much of the increase in food production. However, concerns about a slowdown in yield growth—the cornerstone of agricultural productivity—have sparked debates about food availability, particularly in regions with high population growth such as Sub-Saharan Africa. This perceived slowdown in yield growth has been linked to heightened food insecurity as well rising commodity prices and increased price volatility.
Our recent paper sheds light on a critical question: Has agricultural yield growth slowed down at a global level? To address this, we converted annual crop production data into caloric content, creating standardized metrics that account for shifts toward high-yield crops, regional changes, and variations in yield patterns. Using comprehensive data from the Food and Agriculture Organization, which spans 144 major crops from 1961 to 2021 and represents 98% of global agricultural land, the study concludes that there has been no discernable slowdown in the global growth of crop yields during the last six decades.
Key Findings on Global Yield Growth
Steady global yield growth. Contrary to concerns, global agricultural yield growth has not decelerated. Over the past six decades, yields have increased annually by 109 KCal per hectare—the caloric equivalent of nearly 33 kilograms of wheat per hectare. This finding suggests that while some regions and crops experienced slower growth, these were offset by gains elsewhere, reflecting the overall resilience of global agriculture.
Big-4 commodities lead the way: The “Big-4” crops—maize, rice, soybeans, and wheat—have significantly outpaced other crops in yield growth. These crops grew at an average of 158 Kcal per hectare annually, compared to just 59 Kcal for other crops. This gap has widened over time, underscoring the central role of these crops in global food production.
Regional and income-level variations: In advanced economies, aggregate yields grew by 76 KCal per hectare annually. Emerging market and developing economies saw faster growth, with yields rising by 95 Kcal per hectare annually before 1993 and accelerating to 109 Kcal thereafter. Key drivers include Latin America’s soybean boom, efficiency gains in Eastern Europe and Central Asia after the collapse of centrally planned economies, and Asia’s Green Revolution. Sub-Saharan Africa, however, contributed minimally to global yield growth, hindered by inadequate irrigation, low crop intensity, and limited use of commercial inputs.
Challenges Ahead
While results on yield growth trends are encouraging, significant challenges remain in ensuring food security as global food demand is projected to rise by one-third in the coming decades due to population growth, higher incomes, and changing consumption patterns.
- Climate change and yield volatility: The increasing frequency and severity of adverse weather events, driven by climate change, pose a major threat to agricultural productivity. Public investment in climate-resilient crop varieties will be critical to maintaining yield growth. Such innovations are especially vital given that nearly half of global caloric intake comes from the Big-4 crops, which are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather. Advanced economies, in particular, have experienced more volatile yields due to weather-related disruptions, such as the La Niña episodes of 2010–12.
- Policy and trade barriers: Trade restrictions and distorting agricultural policies hinder food availability, particularly in regions facing food supply deficits. Reforms are needed to address trade barriers, reduce the diversion of food crops to biofuels, and balance environmental objectives with productivity goals. As agriculture accounts for roughly a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions, policies must simultaneously address emissions and ensure robust productivity.
- Food access and equity: Ensuring adequate global food supply is only part of the solution. Equitable access to food remains a critical challenge, particularly in low-income countries affected by conflict and extreme weather. The number of people facing acute food insecurity has more than doubled in the past five years, exceeding 280 million in 2023. Addressing this requires targeted financial assistance, food delivery through aid, investments to boost productivity, and efforts to reduce food waste at the production level.
In conclusion, while global agricultural yield growth remains robust, addressing the challenges of climate change, policy barriers, and food equity is crucial for ensuring future food security. Continued innovation, policy reform, and targeted assistance will be key to meeting the rising global food demand and achieving sustainable agricultural productivity.
Source: blogs.worldbank
