GECMagz

AI and systemic risk

While artificial intelligence offers substantial benefits to society, including accelerated scientific progress, improved economic growth, better decision making and risk…

4 weeks ago

Crypto carry: Market segmentation and price distortions in digital asset markets

The rapid growth of cryptocurrency markets has created new challenges for financial regulators and policymakers. With total crypto capitalisation in…

4 weeks ago

Tariffs and technological hegemony

The Trump administration’s sweeping tariff measures are intended to increase the competitiveness of US firms – especially in high-tech sectors…

4 weeks ago

Macroeconomic impacts of defense spending

EU member states are facing an important multi-year period of increased defence spending. 1   To boost defence capability, NATO allies have…

4 weeks ago

Harnessing the wisdom of the crowds for OECD recession predictions

Macroeconomic forecasters have long struggled to accurately pinpoint the timing of future recessions. In response, an alternative approach using probabilistic…

4 weeks ago

Rerouted, not reduced: How withholding taxes shape global services trade

Global services trade – as the future of global trade – is expanding rapidly (Baldwin et al. 2024, Cernat 2024,…

4 weeks ago

Bank recapitalization versus firm support: A fiscal criterion for crisis policy

Governments often provide capital and other direct funding to banks and nonfinancial firms during economic crises. Government recapitalisation of banks…

4 weeks ago

Macro-financial disconnect in the euro area: Assessing tail risks to euro area growth and equities

The European Commission's Autumn 2025 forecast points to a subdued but positive growth outlook for all euro area member states…

4 weeks ago

Political power and profitable trades in the US Congress

The debate over whether US members of Congress should be allowed to trade individual stocks has moved from a niche…

4 weeks ago

Emerging market resilience to risk-off shocks: Good luck, but mostly good policies

Emerging markets have long been highly exposed to swings in global risk sentiment. During periods of heightened risk aversion –…

4 weeks ago